Dulu & Sekarang (Then & Now).

Dulu-dulu, bila tak sakit tapi buat "test" untuk "check" sakit ke tidak, orang sedemikian dipanggil "hypocondriac".
Sekarang, sesiapa yang tak nak "test" kena pecat, kena tuduh "careless", "inconsiderate", pembawa penyakit & "super spreader".

Dulu-dulu, sesetengah orang perempuan Muslim aje yang pakai niqab, tutup muka.
Sekarang, lelaki & perempuan, Muslim & non-Muslim, semua tutup muka.

Dulu-dulu, lepas keluar tandas, sebelum & selepas makan, basuh tangan.
Sekarang, just being in the presence of other people, dah rasa nak mandi sental sabun seluruh badan.  

Dulu-dulu, bila tak bersalam, dikata sombong.
Sekarang, bila nak bersalam, dituduh "silent killer".

Dulu-dulu, bila duduk rumah aje, tak keluar, digelar anti-social.
Sekarang, bila keluar rumah pun, tetap kena anti-social, tak boleh bergaul dengan orang lain.

Dulu-dulu, bila kawan-kawan demam, hidung berair, ditanya "how are you?"
Sekarang, bila kawan-kawan demam, hidung berair, kena halau, "get away from here."

Dulu-dulu, ada "curfew" hanya pada masa perang.
Sekarang, ada "curfew", disebabkan virus yang tak kenal pun "curfew" tu apa.
(Dulu-dulu, masa perang dengan komunis, kita tahan sesiapa yang bergerak selepas "curfew", tapi macam mana nak tahan virus yang tak kenal waktu pun...?)

This virus affect only less than 1% of the population, and causes death only to less than 0.1%, and yet we take measures that affect 100% of the population, that reduce our quality of life by more than 50%, and affect our economy by billions, if not trillions, of dollars.

How is this proportionate response? 

How is this targeted response?

This is the definition of over reaction.

During WW2, after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour, the US government decided to put all Japanese American (who are US citizens or not) into concentration camps. Instead of targeted response, by investigating and determining who are Japanese spies or not, the US government took blanket measure and put everyone in the camp, regardless of their allegiance. Needless to say, this was a blight in their history and human rights record.

Prior to WW2, the Germany Nazi party increasingly implement authoritarian measures and policies. Good German people kept silence and did nothing. When rhetoric of war become more real, they still kept silence and did nothing. Suddenly, WW2 happened and it was too late. 

Now, governments all over the world are using this virus to implement draconian and authoritarian measures that robbed people of personal freedom and liberty. Everyone kept silent and blindly obey out of fear, disproportionate fear, I may add. The fear is over blown and the rhetoric is designed to keep people in fear for as long as possible, if not, forever.

I believe that if HIV/AID virus were discovered now in the 2020's instead of 1980's, all of us, by government mandates, would have to wear chastity devices, whether we are married or not. (Yes, I know it seems like an I am exaggerating, but am I? Think about it, carefully. They are using a virus to control how we breath. I am sure if they have thought about it in the 1980's, they would have used the HIV/AIDS virus to control our sex lives.)  

Just a few days ago, some WHO official made a statement that said Omicron variant is not mild but that it is less severe. I repeat, he said it is "not mild but less severe". I cannot believe what I was hearing! What is the difference? If that is not propaganda to keep people fearful, I do not know what is. The longer people are fearful, the longer those in power can control and manipulate the people.

Some people may accuse me of "mata duitan", caring more for money than lives. (I do not have to write this. Luckily for me, I work in essential service sector, so, for now, I am more or less OK in terms of job security.) But try saying that to the poor people on the street, who lost their jobs & to the shop owners who had to declare bankruptcy and closed shops. Now instead of fearing death from a virus that they are most likely are immuned from, they are now facing death from hunger and malnutrition & from street crimes since they are now homeless. 

People in some countries with the strictest lockdown measures are starting to protest. I am not proposing we protest on the street. I do not propose violence. But there are other peaceful ways to protest. I am not going to tell you how. I am sure if you are desperate enough, you can think of something.

I am not anti-vaxxers. I thank God my parents vaccinated me against MMR, TB & whatnot when I was a baby. I believe in their effectiveness, the reasons of which I will not mention here.

But Covid19 vaccines is problematic not least of which is its rush roll out. The Covid19 vaccination program is fraught with problems and starting to get more ridiculous with talks about third and fourth booster jabs. One twitter user summed it best when he/she tweeted:-

“The protected need to be protected from the unprotected by forcing the unprotected to use the protection that didn’t protect the protected.”

I rest my case.

Salam.

If you think you are better than other people, then follow this Qur'anic instruction...

During this flood season, as with previous flood seasons, we have the usual agamawan saying the flood is caused by the sins of the people. They asked people to repent in order to avoid God's wrath and disaster next time.

This imply that those affected by the flood are bad people who are being punished by God for something sinful that they have done. No clear indication was given by these agamawan what sins exactly that the affected have done.

Since these agamawan's houses are not affected, then, by implication, they are also saying they are good people, free of sins. They are inferring that they are better people, alim & warak, since their houses are not flooded, free from God's wrath. (If their houses are affected, they would not have said those things).

What does God says about people claiming to be better than other people? Let's see. The Qur'an says the following in Al-Baqarah, verse 94:-

"Katakanlah: 'Jika kamu (menganggap bahwa) kampung akhirat (syurga) itu khusus untukmu di sisi Allah, bukan untuk orang lain, maka inginlah kematian(mu), jika kamu memang benar'."  

"Say, 'If the home of the Hereafter with Allah is for you alone and not the [other] people, then wish for death, if you should be truthful'."

-Al-Quran, 2:94-

Allah says that if you think the Heaven is for you only, then wish for death. In other words, if you think you are good enough to enter Heaven, then wish for death.

Dalam bahasa kasarnya, orang-orang yang rasa diri mereka lebih baik, lebih alim dan lebih warak dari orang lain, dalam bahasa kasarnya Tuhan berkata pada mereka untuk "pergi mampus"...  

So, if you think you are alim & warak, better than other people, why don't you obey God and follow his instruction and go "mampus"...

Salam.

   

Let's get back to the old normal : Part II (Wearing masks now is still an oxymoron.)

In my previous post, I basically said that wearing masks post vaccination is "living in fear". Some people responded by comparing wearing masks with safety belts in cars, applying sunscreen in the sun and wearing cycling helmets while cycling. I still stand by my statement; that wearing masks 24/7 post vaccination is not necessary and that most people still wear them out of fear. 

Safety precaution is all about "proportionate response". The key word is "proportionate". "Sense of proportion". Look it up in the dictionary.

In Malaysia, on average, there are 7 deaths from road accidents daily. That is more than 2,500 deaths per year from road accidents. Do we ban cars? No. Because the benefit of cars and vehicular transportation far outweigh its potential danger. We set reasonable speed limits and safety precaution like safety belts. But here is the thing. You only have to wear safety belts ONLY when you are using/riding a car. If you do not like wearing safety belts, you can choose not to ride a car. You can ride a motor bike or public transport. Wearing safety belts has been proven to greatly save lives in an accident. The probability of survival in an accident is high when you wear safety belt. This is proven. Hence, safety belt is an acceptable "inconvenience" considering the high safety benefit compared against high probability of death when not wearing them.

Similar argument for cycling helmets. Although cycling helmets are designed for cycling athletes who has to cycle at top speed along rough terrain. If you are just cycling slowly for recreation and short distance travel, you do not have to wear them, in my opinion. Even if you fall at slow speed, I do not think you would break your head. You would be able to respond and break your fall. Again, it goes back to risks and benefit. Cost benefit analysis. Proportionate response. Snail pace cycling habit versus athletic speed. 

As for sunscreen. Only white people need to wear them. Dark skinned people living in the tropics generally do not need them. Again, proportionate response. Nobody is forcing anyone to wear sunscreen when out in the sun. You decide based on your own circumstances and your own risk appetite. Your own cost benefit analysis and risk appetite.

However, mandating everyone to wear mask 24/7, especially post vaccination is a policy borne out of fear. In the beginning, when we do not have global data, wearing masks make sense. In the absence of complete data, we err on the side of caution. But now we do have global data. The virus only affects about 1% of the population. Even then, out of that 1%, not all will die. Most will have low to mild symptoms. Most will survive. Even those who die, mostly they die from secondary complication.

This is what I mean by proportionate response. Mandating masks for 100% of the people for something that only greatly affects less than 1% of the population is insane. Again, risk and benefit. Sense of proportion.  

About 90% of Asians are lactose intolerant. Do we ban milk?  

Less than 1% of the adult population worldwide is gluten intolerant. Do we ban wheat flour? Well, why not? The statistic is the same as the virus. Less than 1% is affected.

Less than 1% is affected by CoVid19 and we mandate masks, but yet we do not ban wheat flour even though also less than 1% is affected by gluten intolerant. About 90% of Asians is lactose intolerance and yet we still let milk and milk products flood the market. Why? 

This is what I mean by proportionate response. When we response out of proportion to the danger, it is almost always, because of fear. People who jump and scream when encountering cockroaches, mice and small bugs. They are responding out of proportion to the actual "dangers" posed by cockroaches, mice and small bugs. They are reacting out of fear.

In my industry (oil, gas & petrochemical), we have a concept called ALARP. It means "as low as reasonably practicable". We eliminate and reduce hazards as low as reasonably practicable. The key word here is "reasonably practicable". What is reasonable? According to cost and benefit standards as agreed with the industry practitioners and regulators.

Everything has to be within reasonable risks, not zero risks. Otherwise you would be disabled, cannot do anything, cannot drive, cannot walk, cannot swim, cannot process chemicals, cannot anything.

It is the same with CoVid19. It cannot be zero CoVid19 cases or zero death.

Do you remember the original objective of the lockdown? It is not to achieve zero death. It is so that the number of cases are within the capacity of the healthcare facilities. This means some people would still fall sick and maybe die, but there are enough hospitals and doctors and nurses and medical equipment and morgues to handle the cases. They are not overwhelmed. 

Well, the number of cases post vaccination suggest this is the case. 

People who come into contact with positive people also do not necessarily need treatment. Nor do they need to be quarantined.

So, what is the proportionate response to post vaccinated world?

Back to normal. 

The old normal.

No more masks. No more contact tracing. Otherwise you are just living in fear.

Salam.

Let's get back to the old normal.

Post vaccination mask mandate is an oxymoron.

The question is, does the vaccine works or not? If it works, and we are now treating the disease as endemic, why are we still mandating the wearing of masks?

If the vaccine works, at worst, most infected people will only get a mild fever. Death, if any, will only occur to people with comorbidity, same as with any other pulmonary diseases that are endemic.

Majority of people will be OK when they get the flu, common cold, and other pulmonary related diseases. A tiny few will die, most probably from complication of secondary illnesses. That's what endemic means, at its most basic real life implication.

Based on the statistics of these existing endemic diseases, we do not go around wearing masks in our daily lives. Even when our work colleagues or family members have the sniffles of the nose, we do not react. We do not suddenly order everyone to wear masks. We do not even order them to go home. In fact, in a normal workplace, we give the guy the option whether to take medical leave or continue working with the sniffles, depending on the severity of their sniffles and workload situation; basically, their choice. We do not run away from them like they are carrying the black plague or some zombie virus.

It should be the same with CoVid19 when we say we are treating them as an endemic. That is the real life implication when we say a disease is endemic. We should stop fearing them like we do not fear the flu and the common cold. Even before vaccination, more than 99% of the population are not affected, and I include those that are asymptomatic and/or has only mild fever and do not need breathing assistance.

Post vaccination, the number is higher. In fact, the fatality rate now is very, very low, almost negligible, and certainly are able to be managed by our healthcare infrastructure. In fact, majority of severe symptoms and deaths are now people who are not vaccinated (and the numbers of cases are low and manageable).

I respect the freedom of choice of those who do not want or are not vaccinated for whatever reasons. They have made their choice. They have to live by that choice. They have chosen to live with that risks. I respect that.

We cannot continue to make policy based on those people who, for whatever reasons, are not vaccinated. Now that 90% are vaccinated, we should open the country fully. And I mean fully. 

Interstate travel, no physical distancing, dine in, back to office, recreation & sports, everything. No mask mandates. 

If people want to continue wearing masks, let it be their personal choice, but no mask mandates from the government. Also no vaccine passport for citizens moving within the country. (The only "vaccine passport" that I may agree with is foreign tourists & workers from other countries, but with an expiry limit of implementation, maybe for 1 or 2 years, or until 90% of global population are vaccinated. The point being, it should not be a permanent thing. Also, no need for quarantine.) We have defined herd immunity as 90%. This is an accepted scientific conclusion. If this is true, then we should make policy based on this conclusion.

We should stop fearing CoVid19. Having immunity does not mean you will not get CoVid19. It means if you have it, your survival rate is very, very high. It's the same as chicken pox vaccine. You are vaccinated when you are a baby, but when you are 10 years old, you still get chicken pox. But the most important thing is that, the disease did not cause brain damage to you. Chicken pox become just like the common cold. People do not fear chicken pox anymore, even though, at its worst, you could die or suffer brain damage. (Just google "can you die from chicken pox?".)

It should be the same for CoVId19. 

So, I say, open up everything.

No mask mandate.
No physical distancing.
Come back to the office.
Go to the gyms & parks.
Restart the economy.

No new normal.

Let's get back to the old normal.

Salam.

Towards Zero: Agatha Christie, Songkok & CoVid19 Mask Mandate

Towards Zero: Agatha Christie, Songkok & CoVid19 Mask Mandate

When I see people walking alone outdoor in wide open space, or driving alone in their car and wearing mask in this CoVid19 era, I question their intelligence and sanity. When you are alone, under the hot sun and wide open space where there is nobody around, why are you wearing mask? It is unnecessary and irrational. Well, at least that is what I thought. I keep my mouth shut, of course. You do not want to unnecessarily antagonize your family and friends and certainly not strangers over a small matter that does not affect you personally.

But then my friend ARAA or (was it RMY?), said something that reminded me of Agatha Christie novel "Towards Zero" (recommended reading for people who like detective novel) and my songkok.

In that novel, a past event that happened to the police detective's daughter made him realized that the main suspect was not guilty. The insight that he gained from his daughter's experience prevented him from arresting and charging the wrong person for the murder. A wrong person could have been sent to the gallows to be hanged.

What does my songkok have to do with any of this?

Well, in Terengganu, when I was in primary school, we had religious class in the afternoon. Other students would go back to their houses after morning school for lunch and rest or change of cloth and come back again to the school for the afternoon class. For me, going back and forth between home and school just for lunch is an inconvenience. So, I spent my time in the school library while waiting for the afternoon school. I did not go back home at noon.

During the afternoon religious class, part of the uniform for the boys is to wear the songkok. Since I do not go home after morning class, I bring the songkok and wear it even during the morning class. It is just easier to wear it during the morning class than putting it somewhere and risk losing or misplacing it. It is just more convenient to wear it throughout the day.

Well, it is the same with those people wearing masks even when they are alone. They are going somewhere where wearing masks are mandated. I suppose it is just easier and more convenient for them to wear it all the time rather than holding the masks in their hands. This point was highlighted by my abovementioned friend when I commented on the seemingly irrational behaviour of people who wear masks even when they are alone.

An experience from my past give me an insight as to why other people are doing things a certain way. The same way in the novel that the police detective's experience with his daughter gave him an insight to the action of the main (but innocent) suspect. It give me a "bersangka baik" reason rather than thinking of them as doing something irrational. It stops me from being too judgemental.  

Why am I writing this? Well, just to highlight the value of past experience & the value of reading. Mostly just throwing out my random thought on life in CoVid19 era in general.

Salam.

CoVid19 post vaccination: The media is not doing a good job. They are not asking the right questions.

(Note: This piece was written before 19th July 2021. But I have decided not to edit it and just publish "as is". This is to emphasise the "planning ahead" part rather than what actually happen. Depending on what happen in the UK after 19th July 2021, I may write a follow up.) 

Referring to my previous post here.

It seems Singapore is not the only country with a plan to go back to normal.

The UK is planning to go back to normal also.

In fact, while Singapore is still planning, the UK already set a date for it; which is; 

19th July 2021.

Refer to the UK Prime Minister speech (here) in which he detailed out clearly and concisely the plan to go back to normal.

But of course, the fear mongering media, part of the "safety & health, afraid of everything, generation", kept asking the wrong question.

Listen to this news anchor questioning the UK Health Minister (here). They are focusing on the increasing case numbers, which the Health Minister conceded is increasing.

But the news anchor is ignoring the main point that the Minister is saying. After fully vaccinating 66% of the population (80% for 1st dose) - as of the date of the interview - the link between case numbers to hospitalisation & deaths are greatly reduced. But they kept harping on the case numbers. 

The case numbers are irrelevant! If they are not sick, there is no point tracking them! 

Now, I know, many people distrust politicians, myself included. But notice that the news anchor did not even challenge the UK Health Minister on the reduced rate of hospitalisation cases & deaths. Which made me think that they know the greatly reduced rate is correct, but that they want to stoke fear among the population to demand extended lockdown. How to do that? By focusing on the increasing case numbers which is meaningless since majority, higher majority, do not need hospitalisation. 

Why do they want extended lockdown? I cannot answer that without going into conspiracy theory territories. But bad news sells, and if people cannot go out, the primary activity of choice is watching TV & social media. Who else benefits if lockdown is extended? Think for yourself!

Anyway, I notice the media in Malaysia is also focusing on the case numbers. Nobody is analysing the rate of hospitalisation & deaths before & after vaccination. This is crucial in formulating a revised public health policies and a major factor in deciding whether we should reopen society and the economy.

So, if you are a journalist, please ask the right question. If you have the ears of your elected MPs or ministers, please highlight this to them.

Do not be like headless chicken. We should stop "fighting fires". We should be planning to open back society & the economy. Correct data and analysis of that data is crucial. 

Stop fear mongering. Show the people how we can start living with and managing CoVid19, just like the flu.

CoVid19: Putting CoVid19 deaths in perspective & planning to go back to normal.

I want to clarify that the idea in the previous post is not totally mine. It was a summary and an interpretation of an idea (here, here, here & here) proposed by the Singaporean government, which I agree. The bit of original idea from me is the bit about adding ICU beds and related facilities to cater for the increase in ICU cases.

What the Singapore government is planning is rational and based on a balance of risks. This is after studying the global data for the past 1.5 years, and an increase understanding of the virus. Now that they have the data, I assume they did their own statistical analysis.

For myself, I just google for some data on daily death rate to try and put CoVid19 deaths in perspective.

Below is the infograph that I found from this webpage.

As you can see, the CoVid19 deaths at the bottom are reported in three time period with different average number. Even at the highest peak of deaths, the average death from CoVid19 still did not surpass the current causes of deaths.

This is what I mean when I say we can live with CoVid19 & CoVid19 deaths. CoVid19 deaths will just become another statistics just like any other causes of deaths. Something we have to deal with and manage everyday, just like any other statistics above. (I think this is what the Singapore government also meant, but I do not want to put words in their mouths).

I think after vaccination, the numbers for CoVid19 will decrease, not to zero, but decrease to a smaller circle. To open back the economy, I do not think we have to wait until we reach 80%. We just have to vaccinate the elderly, the vulnerable and those that we know have co-morbidity issues. Then, concurrently, with ongoing vaccination for the rest of the population, we can open back the economy. Please take note that many experts also agree that young children are at lower risk of developing severe symptoms from CoVid19. So we do not have to wait until children are vaccinated. You can just google it if you want to check this fact.

But of course governments all over the world are reluctant to consider this (except Singapore). Half are governed by "safety & health generation", those who are afraid of deaths, afraid of risks, who do not live in the real world. These politicians reminded me of Kathy Bates character "Annie Wilkes" in the movie "Misery" who care for the injured "Paul Sheldon" (played by James Caan) by locking him in his bedroom and not allowing him to go out. She even break his leg in order to prevent him from leaving his bed. (Just like the government "breaking" the people's mental health in lockdown in order to "treat" them of CoVid19. Do you see the irony?). 

The other half are governed by corrupt politicians who take the opportunities of lockdown and Emergency declaration to stay in power under dictatorial rule while siphoning off money from government coffers under emergency expenses (meaning without Parliamentary supervision) for CoVid19 related initiatives.

What is my point?

Refer back to my previous post.

Refer to the Singapore plan.

It is time to start planning to go back to Normal.

Soon.

PS: Again, I have to stress, I am not a healthcare expert or a public health policy expert. But this is something you can think for yourself if you have the time and mental faculty to research and read for yourself. As always, any comment and challenging feedback are welcome.

Salam.