Towards Zero: Agatha Christie, Songkok & CoVid19 Mask Mandate

Towards Zero: Agatha Christie, Songkok & CoVid19 Mask Mandate

When I see people walking alone outdoor in wide open space, or driving alone in their car and wearing mask in this CoVid19 era, I question their intelligence and sanity. When you are alone, under the hot sun and wide open space where there is nobody around, why are you wearing mask? It is unnecessary and irrational. Well, at least that is what I thought. I keep my mouth shut, of course. You do not want to unnecessarily antagonize your family and friends and certainly not strangers over a small matter that does not affect you personally.

But then my friend ARAA or (was it RMY?), said something that reminded me of Agatha Christie novel "Towards Zero" (recommended reading for people who like detective novel) and my songkok.

In that novel, a past event that happened to the police detective's daughter made him realized that the main suspect was not guilty. The insight that he gained from his daughter's experience prevented him from arresting and charging the wrong person for the murder. A wrong person could have been sent to the gallows to be hanged.

What does my songkok have to do with any of this?

Well, in Terengganu, when I was in primary school, we had religious class in the afternoon. Other students would go back to their houses after morning school for lunch and rest or change of cloth and come back again to the school for the afternoon class. For me, going back and forth between home and school just for lunch is an inconvenience. So, I spent my time in the school library while waiting for the afternoon school. I did not go back home at noon.

During the afternoon religious class, part of the uniform for the boys is to wear the songkok. Since I do not go home after morning class, I bring the songkok and wear it even during the morning class. It is just easier to wear it during the morning class than putting it somewhere and risk losing or misplacing it. It is just more convenient to wear it throughout the day.

Well, it is the same with those people wearing masks even when they are alone. They are going somewhere where wearing masks are mandated. I suppose it is just easier and more convenient for them to wear it all the time rather than holding the masks in their hands. This point was highlighted by my abovementioned friend when I commented on the seemingly irrational behaviour of people who wear masks even when they are alone.

An experience from my past give me an insight as to why other people are doing things a certain way. The same way in the novel that the police detective's experience with his daughter gave him an insight to the action of the main (but innocent) suspect. It give me a "bersangka baik" reason rather than thinking of them as doing something irrational. It stops me from being too judgemental.  

Why am I writing this? Well, just to highlight the value of past experience & the value of reading. Mostly just throwing out my random thought on life in CoVid19 era in general.

Salam.

CoVid19 post vaccination: The media is not doing a good job. They are not asking the right questions.

(Note: This piece was written before 19th July 2021. But I have decided not to edit it and just publish "as is". This is to emphasise the "planning ahead" part rather than what actually happen. Depending on what happen in the UK after 19th July 2021, I may write a follow up.) 

Referring to my previous post here.

It seems Singapore is not the only country with a plan to go back to normal.

The UK is planning to go back to normal also.

In fact, while Singapore is still planning, the UK already set a date for it; which is; 

19th July 2021.

Refer to the UK Prime Minister speech (here) in which he detailed out clearly and concisely the plan to go back to normal.

But of course, the fear mongering media, part of the "safety & health, afraid of everything, generation", kept asking the wrong question.

Listen to this news anchor questioning the UK Health Minister (here). They are focusing on the increasing case numbers, which the Health Minister conceded is increasing.

But the news anchor is ignoring the main point that the Minister is saying. After fully vaccinating 66% of the population (80% for 1st dose) - as of the date of the interview - the link between case numbers to hospitalisation & deaths are greatly reduced. But they kept harping on the case numbers. 

The case numbers are irrelevant! If they are not sick, there is no point tracking them! 

Now, I know, many people distrust politicians, myself included. But notice that the news anchor did not even challenge the UK Health Minister on the reduced rate of hospitalisation cases & deaths. Which made me think that they know the greatly reduced rate is correct, but that they want to stoke fear among the population to demand extended lockdown. How to do that? By focusing on the increasing case numbers which is meaningless since majority, higher majority, do not need hospitalisation. 

Why do they want extended lockdown? I cannot answer that without going into conspiracy theory territories. But bad news sells, and if people cannot go out, the primary activity of choice is watching TV & social media. Who else benefits if lockdown is extended? Think for yourself!

Anyway, I notice the media in Malaysia is also focusing on the case numbers. Nobody is analysing the rate of hospitalisation & deaths before & after vaccination. This is crucial in formulating a revised public health policies and a major factor in deciding whether we should reopen society and the economy.

So, if you are a journalist, please ask the right question. If you have the ears of your elected MPs or ministers, please highlight this to them.

Do not be like headless chicken. We should stop "fighting fires". We should be planning to open back society & the economy. Correct data and analysis of that data is crucial. 

Stop fear mongering. Show the people how we can start living with and managing CoVid19, just like the flu.

CoVid19: Putting CoVid19 deaths in perspective & planning to go back to normal.

I want to clarify that the idea in the previous post is not totally mine. It was a summary and an interpretation of an idea (here, here, here & here) proposed by the Singaporean government, which I agree. The bit of original idea from me is the bit about adding ICU beds and related facilities to cater for the increase in ICU cases.

What the Singapore government is planning is rational and based on a balance of risks. This is after studying the global data for the past 1.5 years, and an increase understanding of the virus. Now that they have the data, I assume they did their own statistical analysis.

For myself, I just google for some data on daily death rate to try and put CoVid19 deaths in perspective.

Below is the infograph that I found from this webpage.

As you can see, the CoVid19 deaths at the bottom are reported in three time period with different average number. Even at the highest peak of deaths, the average death from CoVid19 still did not surpass the current causes of deaths.

This is what I mean when I say we can live with CoVid19 & CoVid19 deaths. CoVid19 deaths will just become another statistics just like any other causes of deaths. Something we have to deal with and manage everyday, just like any other statistics above. (I think this is what the Singapore government also meant, but I do not want to put words in their mouths).

I think after vaccination, the numbers for CoVid19 will decrease, not to zero, but decrease to a smaller circle. To open back the economy, I do not think we have to wait until we reach 80%. We just have to vaccinate the elderly, the vulnerable and those that we know have co-morbidity issues. Then, concurrently, with ongoing vaccination for the rest of the population, we can open back the economy. Please take note that many experts also agree that young children are at lower risk of developing severe symptoms from CoVid19. So we do not have to wait until children are vaccinated. You can just google it if you want to check this fact.

But of course governments all over the world are reluctant to consider this (except Singapore). Half are governed by "safety & health generation", those who are afraid of deaths, afraid of risks, who do not live in the real world. These politicians reminded me of Kathy Bates character "Annie Wilkes" in the movie "Misery" who care for the injured "Paul Sheldon" (played by James Caan) by locking him in his bedroom and not allowing him to go out. She even break his leg in order to prevent him from leaving his bed. (Just like the government "breaking" the people's mental health in lockdown in order to "treat" them of CoVid19. Do you see the irony?). 

The other half are governed by corrupt politicians who take the opportunities of lockdown and Emergency declaration to stay in power under dictatorial rule while siphoning off money from government coffers under emergency expenses (meaning without Parliamentary supervision) for CoVid19 related initiatives.

What is my point?

Refer back to my previous post.

Refer to the Singapore plan.

It is time to start planning to go back to Normal.

Soon.

PS: Again, I have to stress, I am not a healthcare expert or a public health policy expert. But this is something you can think for yourself if you have the time and mental faculty to research and read for yourself. As always, any comment and challenging feedback are welcome.

Salam.

CoVid19: It is time to recalibrate & restructure our healthcare facilities & policies.

This lockdown has been going on long enough. 
We are still living from one outbreak to another outbreak.
This is not tenable.

We need to start planning to go back to normal. 

We need to start planning to live with CoVid19. 

We have to start living with CoVid19.

We cannot have lockdown after lockdown.
I repeat, this is not tenable.

We need to start treating CoVid19 like other diseases like the flu, chicken pox, malaria, dengue, etc.

When we have a dengue or malaria outbreak, do we declare war with mosquitoes and commit ourselves to mosquito genocide? 

NO.

Do we stop people from going out at night or to the jungle? 

NO.

We continue on living and just treat people with malaria & dengue, conduct extra fogging & issue out public service announcement on TV and social media. We do not commit ourselves to mosquito genocide or to zero malaria & dengue death. Because we know it is impossible and impractical.

Similarly, every festival holidays, road accidents and related fatalities increase when more vehicles ply the road to go back to kampungs. 
Do we stop people from going back to kampungs every holiday even though road accidents fatalities increase compared to normal days?
NO.

We go on living as normal and just treat those that got injured in car accidents and bury the dead. We put out public service announcement on road safety and have more police patrol and stricter enforcement but we do not aim for zero accidents or zero death because again it is almost impossible and impractical.

There are Ebola & Zika in the African continents.
Do we stop people from going to Africa?
NO.
We let people know the risks before they go.

We have had MERS-CoV in the Middle East.
Do we stop people from going to pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia?
NO.
We dealt with it.

People die of diabetes almost everyday.
Do we ban sugar and food with sugar?
NO.
We educate people about sugar and let them make their own choices.

Same with CoVid19.
We need to start dealing with it.
Living with CoVid19 in our midst.
Just like the flu & the common cold.

How?

We need to recalibrate and restructure our healthcare facilities, specifically hospital beds & ICU wards facilities.

These facilities are provided by government & private hospitals based on the number of deaths and diseases and accidents that happen on an average day.

We have the statistics.

We know the accident rates of injuries & fatalities number.
We know the rate of people dying and requiring treatment from other diseases, heart diseases, cancer, dying old people, etc, on an average day.

From all these statistics, we calibrate our healthcare facilities and plan on the national level how many hospitals, beds, ICU wards we need all over the country.

With CoVid19, even post vaccination, these statistics will increase by a certain number.
The current healthcare facilities does not take CoVid19 into account.
That is why ICU are flooded.

If we take CoVid19 into account, then the ICU beds need to be added.
The healthcare facilities need to be recalibrated to take into account the CoVid19 numbers.

Then, anybody with severe symptoms to CoVid19 will just be treated the same as people that have severe symptoms with flu, pneumonia, diabetes, major strokes, etc.

No more testing, no more contact tracing, no more quarantine for people without symptoms or people who are not sick.

Let people live as normal.

If people get sick, let them rest at home, just like any other diseases such as flu or common cold.

And just like any other diseases or flu or common cold, if they get worse, go to the hospital for treatment.

Or if you are like some people who go to hospitals or clinic even for mild fever or mild symptoms, then continue doing so, and if you feel like it, ask your doctor to check for your antigen.

Everything is voluntary as per before the pandemic.

With this, CoVid19 will be treated as endemic.

You may ask, where to get the money to add all these new healthcare facilities?

How about diverting all the money in setting up all the quarantine centres to set up new ICU facilities.

Get back to normal as soon as possible, recover and grow the economy, and divert all the new taxes from the economic growth to this initiative.

We cannot go on like this, living from one lockdown to another. The suicide numbers is increasing, racing to catch up with CoVid19 death numbers. This is not including death from poverty, which can cause malnutrition & crimes of desperation.

I am not a healthcare expert. This is just a radical idea that pop up in my head after doing my own reading. If you disagree, you can comment and give your own idea. You can challenge this idea or give your own idea. 

This idea may be radical and difficult to implement but not impossible, I think.

I do not know what is the best idea to start going back to normal, but I do know one thing.

We cannot be held hostage by this Corona virus anymore.

We have to suck it up and go back to normal before Malaysia becomes a failed state from this economic lockdown.

Salam.

I am not afraid of ghosts anymore.

When I was small, we lived in a kampung house with outside toilet. The house is still standing and my mum still lives there with our youngest sibling. Now, the toilet is inside.

But back then, a long time ago, the toilet was outside, about 10 metres away from the foot of the back staircase, with the back facing a big empty green field. Near the toilet, a bit further back from the house is a "mini jungle", or "semak samun" in Malay. But to a 7 year old who is afraid of ghosts, the "semak samun" might as well have been the Amazonian tropical rain forest. The eeriness is compounded with the presence of owls, or "burung hantu" in Malay (literally "ghost bird") hooting away at night. There was even this one big tree which silhouette at night resembles King Kong. 

So, you can imagine when a 7 year old with an active imagination fueled by scary superstitious stories wanting to do his "personal business" in the middle of the night, that it was scary.

Then, in the 80's, the legend of "hantu kum-kum" went viral. I was not exactly sure what was scary about "hantu kum-kum", but it went around giving salam (as in Assalamualaikum") to kids to scare them. I do not know what happen to you when the hantu give salam to you but the stories just add more fuel to your superstitious fear.

Every night we had to go to Qur'an class to an old lady's house who taught the Qur'an reading and recital. On the way, we had to pass near another "mini jungle", but thicker than the one at the back of my house. One night, somebody decided to play a practical joke and dressed a statue-like bush all in white. On the way back from the class, we saw something white in the distance in the "mini jungle" and all of us started running and screaming, all the way home. Of course, the next day, we saw the white cloth still there and we laughed about it.

The fear of ghosts and everything supernatural, while not debilitating, was a mental struggle as a kid. It did not stop me to join my pengakap activities and went camping in the jungle, but when I had to use the outside toilet alone, it was a mental struggle. You had to keep telling yourself that "there are no ghosts" over and over while you are sitting down sh*tting in the dark. I can laugh at myself now, but let's just say life would have been better without the superstitious nonsense.

The fear of ghosts and supernatural did not hinder me from nightly activities as a kid. My rational mind won the day, or should I say the night, every time I had to do anything at night. But it was uncomfortable and not pleasant having to deal with this fear every time.

As I grow up, the fear becomes less and less but it was always at the back of my mind. When I started jungle hiking as a hobby, I had to worry about other supernatural beings too, as told by other people. I still join the jungle hiking activities, but when you had to worry about unseen beings (like bunians, harimau jadian, etc), your enjoyment is less. 

I have never seen or encounter any ghosts or any supernatural beings. Some Malay Muslims will accuse me of being a "kafir" for even saying this but I doubt that those entities exist. As far as I know there are no "believe in ghosts" under the six "Rukun Iman" but you would still be accused of "kafir" for even questioning the existence of ghosts. 

As my understanding of the world increases, including mental health issues, science of the brain & neurology and physics, I fear ghosts and the supernatural, less and less but not completely fear-less. Because by its very nature those things are unseen, so, you can never be sure. Hence, there is always that bit of fear at the back of your mind. 

Then, something happened! 

I started reading the Qur'an for myself. I found I do not have to be afraid of any ghosts or any unseen beings.

First of all, there are no mentions of ghosts in the Quran. The Quran mentions "jinn", "shaytan", "Iblis" and "sihir". In one way or another, these entities are said to be connected to the phenomenon of ghosts and "kawasan-kawasan yang sewaktu dengannya". (I do not know how, but it is what people said, when I said ghosts do not exist.) There are some scholarly debate what are exactly "jinns" in the Quran means, but the prevalent opinions are that "jinns" are, well, genies or "jin" in Malay. There are some minority opinions that say "jinns" are something else, not the mythical genies or "jin".

Many Malay Muslims believe that ghosts and other supernatural phenomena occur because of these "jinns" "shaytan", "Iblis" and "sihir". There are no direct mention of ghosts in the Quran, so, they say all occurrences of ghosts and supernatural events, including but not limited to bunians, saka, curses, hexes, possession (rasuk) or sihir, are because of them.

But here is the thing.

IT DOES NOT MATTER!

Whether "jinns" of the Quran are genies/"jin" or not; or the cause of sihir or not; or syaitan or iblis; it does not matter. Because the Quran says they cannot harm you.

First let's look at Quran verse 7:27.

"O ye Children of Adam! Let not Satan seduce you ... he and his tribe watch you from a position where ye cannot see them..."

So, anyone that claims they can see jinns or ghosts or anything that "sama waktu dengannya", they are either lying or they suffer from hallucinations. The Quran says we cannot see them.

Then, Quran verse 15:42;

"Surely, you (Iblis) shall have no power over My servants..."

The Quran says they have no power over us. They cannot do anything to us. They cannot frighten us, cannot "rasuk" us, or do anything to us.

Then, Quran 16:99;

"He (Satan) has no power over those who truly believe and put their trust in their Lord"

Again, the Quran says they have no power over us. They cannot do anything to us. They cannot frighten us, cannot "rasuk" us, or do anything to us.

What about "sihir"?

Quran 2:102 says thus;

"...but they cannot harm anyone except by God's permission..."

So, we cannot see them, they have no power over us and they cannot harm us. So, we do not have to worry about them. So, whether ghosts and jinns exist or not; does not matter. For all intents and practical purposes, they are the same as not real. 

So, now I do not worry about ghosts or bunians or sihir anymore. When I go hiking in the jungle, day or night, I worry about the real dangers, wild animals and dangerous terrains.

As for those who accuse me of "kafir" for not believing in ghosts, I only say this. A Muslim believe in the Quran, it is one of the Rukun Iman. The Quran says you cannot see them, they do not have power over you and cannot harm you, meaning they cannot affect you, meaning they are as good as not real for all practical purposes. So, you want to believe the Quran or the internet ustaz, ulama, agamawan or "Raja Bomoh" who says otherwise?

It is up to you!

Berdewakan agamawan: Part I

With the proliferation of the internet and TV and mobile phones, many people now have access to the media, including religious preachers preaching their stuff.

Sometime, a cult-like following materializes around certain preachers, especially if he has the gift of the gab, a wonderful speaker that can mesmerize people with his speeches.

People idolizes them and listen and follow these preachers blindly, without thinking.

In my youth, I also used to listen to these preachers, especially those that criticise the ruling government. It was before the advent of the internet, and it was difficult to access information and obtain free flow of balanced news and views.

Hence, I gravitated towards those preachers that are on the opposite side of the mainstream media.

Not many were brave enough to criticize the ruling government.

Many preachers were afraid to jeopardise their "cari makan" on national TV, less they are banned.

However, this one preacher was brave enough to criticize them left, right and centre.

He went around the country giving ceramah, bravely condemning and criticizing the wrongs committed by the ruling government.

It was refreshing because the mainstream media was self-censoring themselves less they get into trouble with the ruling government.

But then, when the party that he seemingly support did something wrong, he did not criticize them.

Some people would at least stay quiet in shame (or at least to maintain a show of unity even when they disagree in silence).

But he went beyond that.

I did not expect him to switch loyalty or change allegiance.

I expect him to "tegur" the action or behaviour, even in double speak "berkias" Melayu manner. At the very least, just stay quiet and not show support for something that is clearly wrong.

He did not even do that.

Instead, he justified their action with a ridiculous religious rulings, even twisting his reasoning to suit the political party agenda.

I saw the hypocrisy and I stopped listening.

Another preacher that I respected and listened to was supportive of the ruling party.

But at that time, I can see that his support was not given blindly.

He was fair to both sides, praise when praise is due and "tegur" when they did something wrong, to both sides.

When the ruling party did something wrong, he "tegur" them, in "bahasa berkias", in double speak.

That was good enough for me.

He had integrity, and he put right and wrong first and he did not "jual agama" for his "rezeki".

But then, along the way, somehow, he became more radical.

I do not know what happen.

He became ultra racial (not racist, there is a difference).

He contributed to racial tension in the country.

The Qur'an says "... do not insult the symbols of other religion less they insult yours back..." (Quran 6:108).

He did not live up to the standard set by the Book he says he believes in.

What does this tell you?

Well, I will not tell you not to listen to them, to any preachers, or to any speech.

I believe in free speech and freedom of expression. I do not believe in censorship and banning speech.

But, please listen with intelligence and apply your critical thinking skills.

Above all else, do not deify these "agamawan".

Do not cast out stone idols and replace them with other human idols in "religious" outfits.

Do not "mendewakan agamawan" that are crowding the "market place of ideas" and the internet.

Educate yourselves and your children to think critically, to be fair and just, and to be compassionate and understanding of other people different than you. Trust that you know what is right and wrong, that inherent inner voice and reasonable minds that God has given everybody.

When somebody uses religion and claim to speak on behalf of God to tell you something bad, you know it in your heart and mind that it is bad.

You just have to listen to it.

After all God says He is near, as near as your jugular veins (Qur'an 50:16).

That inner voice that you hear, it could be Him telling you what is right and wrong.

As the saying goes...;

Good people will do good things.

Bad people will do bad things.

Sometimes, bad people will do good things in order to get something in return.

But, it takes religious people who use religion and manipulate other good people, for good people to do bad things.

#farkhundamalikzada

So, be careful!

CoVid19 commentary. Was our reaction rational or an over reaction?

The pandemic is now more than one year old.

We should have more than enough data to show how bad the virus is actually. 

From countries that institute full lockdown, semi-lockdown or no lockdown.

We can do statistical analysis between those countries, between this virus and other flu/pneumonia-related viruses, and/or common cold viruses.

These are my questions.

From all the testing, what is the total number of people tested positive?

Percentage wise, how many of those tested positive, fell sick, or have symptoms (mild, medium, or severe symptoms)?

Percentage wise, how many that have symptoms, have to be hospitalised?

Percentage wise, how many that were hospitalised, require ICU or CCU wards?

Percentage wise, how many that tested positive, died?

Percentage wise, how many that have symptoms, died?

From those that died, how many died because of complications from other existing diseases? How many died even though they have no other complications?

What are the most vulnerable age group? Is it the same across age group, or are certain age group more vulnerable?

What is the mortality rate comparison between CoVid19 to other flu, pneumonia and/or common cold viruses?

After one year, I believe we have enough data to do these statistical comparison.

We should be able to analyse and conclude, statistically speaking, whether our reaction to this virus have been rational or an over reaction.

Like it or not, for the longest time, people have died and will continue to die from these kind of viruses. We cannot stop our lives every time a new virus emerge. Viruses have always, and will always evolve to new strains.

We cannot run away from this fact of life.

Going forward, our reaction has to be more measured.

I hope our scientific communities and government institutions learnt from this event.

I hope they learnt the right lessons.