CoVid19: It is time to recalibrate & restructure our healthcare facilities & policies.

This lockdown has been going on long enough. 
We are still living from one outbreak to another outbreak.
This is not tenable.

We need to start planning to go back to normal. 

We need to start planning to live with CoVid19. 

We have to start living with CoVid19.

We cannot have lockdown after lockdown.
I repeat, this is not tenable.

We need to start treating CoVid19 like other diseases like the flu, chicken pox, malaria, dengue, etc.

When we have a dengue or malaria outbreak, do we declare war with mosquitoes and commit ourselves to mosquito genocide? 

NO.

Do we stop people from going out at night or to the jungle? 

NO.

We continue on living and just treat people with malaria & dengue, conduct extra fogging & issue out public service announcement on TV and social media. We do not commit ourselves to mosquito genocide or to zero malaria & dengue death. Because we know it is impossible and impractical.

Similarly, every festival holidays, road accidents and related fatalities increase when more vehicles ply the road to go back to kampungs. 
Do we stop people from going back to kampungs every holiday even though road accidents fatalities increase compared to normal days?
NO.

We go on living as normal and just treat those that got injured in car accidents and bury the dead. We put out public service announcement on road safety and have more police patrol and stricter enforcement but we do not aim for zero accidents or zero death because again it is almost impossible and impractical.

There are Ebola & Zika in the African continents.
Do we stop people from going to Africa?
NO.
We let people know the risks before they go.

We have had MERS-CoV in the Middle East.
Do we stop people from going to pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia?
NO.
We dealt with it.

People die of diabetes almost everyday.
Do we ban sugar and food with sugar?
NO.
We educate people about sugar and let them make their own choices.

Same with CoVid19.
We need to start dealing with it.
Living with CoVid19 in our midst.
Just like the flu & the common cold.

How?

We need to recalibrate and restructure our healthcare facilities, specifically hospital beds & ICU wards facilities.

These facilities are provided by government & private hospitals based on the number of deaths and diseases and accidents that happen on an average day.

We have the statistics.

We know the accident rates of injuries & fatalities number.
We know the rate of people dying and requiring treatment from other diseases, heart diseases, cancer, dying old people, etc, on an average day.

From all these statistics, we calibrate our healthcare facilities and plan on the national level how many hospitals, beds, ICU wards we need all over the country.

With CoVid19, even post vaccination, these statistics will increase by a certain number.
The current healthcare facilities does not take CoVid19 into account.
That is why ICU are flooded.

If we take CoVid19 into account, then the ICU beds need to be added.
The healthcare facilities need to be recalibrated to take into account the CoVid19 numbers.

Then, anybody with severe symptoms to CoVid19 will just be treated the same as people that have severe symptoms with flu, pneumonia, diabetes, major strokes, etc.

No more testing, no more contact tracing, no more quarantine for people without symptoms or people who are not sick.

Let people live as normal.

If people get sick, let them rest at home, just like any other diseases such as flu or common cold.

And just like any other diseases or flu or common cold, if they get worse, go to the hospital for treatment.

Or if you are like some people who go to hospitals or clinic even for mild fever or mild symptoms, then continue doing so, and if you feel like it, ask your doctor to check for your antigen.

Everything is voluntary as per before the pandemic.

With this, CoVid19 will be treated as endemic.

You may ask, where to get the money to add all these new healthcare facilities?

How about diverting all the money in setting up all the quarantine centres to set up new ICU facilities.

Get back to normal as soon as possible, recover and grow the economy, and divert all the new taxes from the economic growth to this initiative.

We cannot go on like this, living from one lockdown to another. The suicide numbers is increasing, racing to catch up with CoVid19 death numbers. This is not including death from poverty, which can cause malnutrition & crimes of desperation.

I am not a healthcare expert. This is just a radical idea that pop up in my head after doing my own reading. If you disagree, you can comment and give your own idea. You can challenge this idea or give your own idea. 

This idea may be radical and difficult to implement but not impossible, I think.

I do not know what is the best idea to start going back to normal, but I do know one thing.

We cannot be held hostage by this Corona virus anymore.

We have to suck it up and go back to normal before Malaysia becomes a failed state from this economic lockdown.

Salam.

I am not afraid of ghosts anymore.

When I was small, we lived in a kampung house with outside toilet. The house is still standing and my mum still lives there with our youngest sibling. Now, the toilet is inside.

But back then, a long time ago, the toilet was outside, about 10 metres away from the foot of the back staircase, with the back facing a big empty green field. Near the toilet, a bit further back from the house is a "mini jungle", or "semak samun" in Malay. But to a 7 year old who is afraid of ghosts, the "semak samun" might as well have been the Amazonian tropical rain forest. The eeriness is compounded with the presence of owls, or "burung hantu" in Malay (literally "ghost bird") hooting away at night. There was even this one big tree which silhouette at night resembles King Kong. 

So, you can imagine when a 7 year old with an active imagination fueled by scary superstitious stories wanting to do his "personal business" in the middle of the night, that it was scary.

Then, in the 80's, the legend of "hantu kum-kum" went viral. I was not exactly sure what was scary about "hantu kum-kum", but it went around giving salam (as in Assalamualaikum") to kids to scare them. I do not know what happen to you when the hantu give salam to you but the stories just add more fuel to your superstitious fear.

Every night we had to go to Qur'an class to an old lady's house who taught the Qur'an reading and recital. On the way, we had to pass near another "mini jungle", but thicker than the one at the back of my house. One night, somebody decided to play a practical joke and dressed a statue-like bush all in white. On the way back from the class, we saw something white in the distance in the "mini jungle" and all of us started running and screaming, all the way home. Of course, the next day, we saw the white cloth still there and we laughed about it.

The fear of ghosts and everything supernatural, while not debilitating, was a mental struggle as a kid. It did not stop me to join my pengakap activities and went camping in the jungle, but when I had to use the outside toilet alone, it was a mental struggle. You had to keep telling yourself that "there are no ghosts" over and over while you are sitting down sh*tting in the dark. I can laugh at myself now, but let's just say life would have been better without the superstitious nonsense.

The fear of ghosts and supernatural did not hinder me from nightly activities as a kid. My rational mind won the day, or should I say the night, every time I had to do anything at night. But it was uncomfortable and not pleasant having to deal with this fear every time.

As I grow up, the fear becomes less and less but it was always at the back of my mind. When I started jungle hiking as a hobby, I had to worry about other supernatural beings too, as told by other people. I still join the jungle hiking activities, but when you had to worry about unseen beings (like bunians, harimau jadian, etc), your enjoyment is less. 

I have never seen or encounter any ghosts or any supernatural beings. Some Malay Muslims will accuse me of being a "kafir" for even saying this but I doubt that those entities exist. As far as I know there are no "believe in ghosts" under the six "Rukun Iman" but you would still be accused of "kafir" for even questioning the existence of ghosts. 

As my understanding of the world increases, including mental health issues, science of the brain & neurology and physics, I fear ghosts and the supernatural, less and less but not completely fear-less. Because by its very nature those things are unseen, so, you can never be sure. Hence, there is always that bit of fear at the back of your mind. 

Then, something happened! 

I started reading the Qur'an for myself. I found I do not have to be afraid of any ghosts or any unseen beings.

First of all, there are no mentions of ghosts in the Quran. The Quran mentions "jinn", "shaytan", "Iblis" and "sihir". In one way or another, these entities are said to be connected to the phenomenon of ghosts and "kawasan-kawasan yang sewaktu dengannya". (I do not know how, but it is what people said, when I said ghosts do not exist.) There are some scholarly debate what are exactly "jinns" in the Quran means, but the prevalent opinions are that "jinns" are, well, genies or "jin" in Malay. There are some minority opinions that say "jinns" are something else, not the mythical genies or "jin".

Many Malay Muslims believe that ghosts and other supernatural phenomena occur because of these "jinns" "shaytan", "Iblis" and "sihir". There are no direct mention of ghosts in the Quran, so, they say all occurrences of ghosts and supernatural events, including but not limited to bunians, saka, curses, hexes, possession (rasuk) or sihir, are because of them.

But here is the thing.

IT DOES NOT MATTER!

Whether "jinns" of the Quran are genies/"jin" or not; or the cause of sihir or not; or syaitan or iblis; it does not matter. Because the Quran says they cannot harm you.

First let's look at Quran verse 7:27.

"O ye Children of Adam! Let not Satan seduce you ... he and his tribe watch you from a position where ye cannot see them..."

So, anyone that claims they can see jinns or ghosts or anything that "sama waktu dengannya", they are either lying or they suffer from hallucinations. The Quran says we cannot see them.

Then, Quran verse 15:42;

"Surely, you (Iblis) shall have no power over My servants..."

The Quran says they have no power over us. They cannot do anything to us. They cannot frighten us, cannot "rasuk" us, or do anything to us.

Then, Quran 16:99;

"He (Satan) has no power over those who truly believe and put their trust in their Lord"

Again, the Quran says they have no power over us. They cannot do anything to us. They cannot frighten us, cannot "rasuk" us, or do anything to us.

What about "sihir"?

Quran 2:102 says thus;

"...but they cannot harm anyone except by God's permission..."

So, we cannot see them, they have no power over us and they cannot harm us. So, we do not have to worry about them. So, whether ghosts and jinns exist or not; does not matter. For all intents and practical purposes, they are the same as not real. 

So, now I do not worry about ghosts or bunians or sihir anymore. When I go hiking in the jungle, day or night, I worry about the real dangers, wild animals and dangerous terrains.

As for those who accuse me of "kafir" for not believing in ghosts, I only say this. A Muslim believe in the Quran, it is one of the Rukun Iman. The Quran says you cannot see them, they do not have power over you and cannot harm you, meaning they cannot affect you, meaning they are as good as not real for all practical purposes. So, you want to believe the Quran or the internet ustaz, ulama, agamawan or "Raja Bomoh" who says otherwise?

It is up to you!

Berdewakan agamawan: Part I

With the proliferation of the internet and TV and mobile phones, many people now have access to the media, including religious preachers preaching their stuff.

Sometime, a cult-like following materializes around certain preachers, especially if he has the gift of the gab, a wonderful speaker that can mesmerize people with his speeches.

People idolizes them and listen and follow these preachers blindly, without thinking.

In my youth, I also used to listen to these preachers, especially those that criticise the ruling government. It was before the advent of the internet, and it was difficult to access information and obtain free flow of balanced news and views.

Hence, I gravitated towards those preachers that are on the opposite side of the mainstream media.

Not many were brave enough to criticize the ruling government.

Many preachers were afraid to jeopardise their "cari makan" on national TV, less they are banned.

However, this one preacher was brave enough to criticize them left, right and centre.

He went around the country giving ceramah, bravely condemning and criticizing the wrongs committed by the ruling government.

It was refreshing because the mainstream media was self-censoring themselves less they get into trouble with the ruling government.

But then, when the party that he seemingly support did something wrong, he did not criticize them.

Some people would at least stay quiet in shame (or at least to maintain a show of unity even when they disagree in silence).

But he went beyond that.

I did not expect him to switch loyalty or change allegiance.

I expect him to "tegur" the action or behaviour, even in double speak "berkias" Melayu manner. At the very least, just stay quiet and not show support for something that is clearly wrong.

He did not even do that.

Instead, he justified their action with a ridiculous religious rulings, even twisting his reasoning to suit the political party agenda.

I saw the hypocrisy and I stopped listening.

Another preacher that I respected and listened to was supportive of the ruling party.

But at that time, I can see that his support was not given blindly.

He was fair to both sides, praise when praise is due and "tegur" when they did something wrong, to both sides.

When the ruling party did something wrong, he "tegur" them, in "bahasa berkias", in double speak.

That was good enough for me.

He had integrity, and he put right and wrong first and he did not "jual agama" for his "rezeki".

But then, along the way, somehow, he became more radical.

I do not know what happen.

He became ultra racial (not racist, there is a difference).

He contributed to racial tension in the country.

The Qur'an says "... do not insult the symbols of other religion less they insult yours back..." (Quran 6:108).

He did not live up to the standard set by the Book he says he believes in.

What does this tell you?

Well, I will not tell you not to listen to them, to any preachers, or to any speech.

I believe in free speech and freedom of expression. I do not believe in censorship and banning speech.

But, please listen with intelligence and apply your critical thinking skills.

Above all else, do not deify these "agamawan".

Do not cast out stone idols and replace them with other human idols in "religious" outfits.

Do not "mendewakan agamawan" that are crowding the "market place of ideas" and the internet.

Educate yourselves and your children to think critically, to be fair and just, and to be compassionate and understanding of other people different than you. Trust that you know what is right and wrong, that inherent inner voice and reasonable minds that God has given everybody.

When somebody uses religion and claim to speak on behalf of God to tell you something bad, you know it in your heart and mind that it is bad.

You just have to listen to it.

After all God says He is near, as near as your jugular veins (Qur'an 50:16).

That inner voice that you hear, it could be Him telling you what is right and wrong.

As the saying goes...;

Good people will do good things.

Bad people will do bad things.

Sometimes, bad people will do good things in order to get something in return.

But, it takes religious people who use religion and manipulate other good people, for good people to do bad things.

#farkhundamalikzada

So, be careful!

CoVid19 commentary. Was our reaction rational or an over reaction?

The pandemic is now more than one year old.

We should have more than enough data to show how bad the virus is actually. 

From countries that institute full lockdown, semi-lockdown or no lockdown.

We can do statistical analysis between those countries, between this virus and other flu/pneumonia-related viruses, and/or common cold viruses.

These are my questions.

From all the testing, what is the total number of people tested positive?

Percentage wise, how many of those tested positive, fell sick, or have symptoms (mild, medium, or severe symptoms)?

Percentage wise, how many that have symptoms, have to be hospitalised?

Percentage wise, how many that were hospitalised, require ICU or CCU wards?

Percentage wise, how many that tested positive, died?

Percentage wise, how many that have symptoms, died?

From those that died, how many died because of complications from other existing diseases? How many died even though they have no other complications?

What are the most vulnerable age group? Is it the same across age group, or are certain age group more vulnerable?

What is the mortality rate comparison between CoVid19 to other flu, pneumonia and/or common cold viruses?

After one year, I believe we have enough data to do these statistical comparison.

We should be able to analyse and conclude, statistically speaking, whether our reaction to this virus have been rational or an over reaction.

Like it or not, for the longest time, people have died and will continue to die from these kind of viruses. We cannot stop our lives every time a new virus emerge. Viruses have always, and will always evolve to new strains.

We cannot run away from this fact of life.

Going forward, our reaction has to be more measured.

I hope our scientific communities and government institutions learnt from this event.

I hope they learnt the right lessons.

Write a lyric for the song only you can understand (Elan by Nightwish)

To paraphrase Nightwish, "Write a post for the blog only you can understand"...

That is how I sometimes feel when writing this blog.
Do people understand?
I do not know.

That is why I open this blog with this post...

Anyway, here is the Floor Jansen of Nightwish, singing Elan.

Lyrics

Leave the sleep and let the springtime talk
In tongues from the time before man
Listen to a daffodil tell her tale
Let the guest in, walk out, be the first to greet the morn
The meadows of heaven await harvest
The cliffs unjumped, cold waters untouched
The elsewhere creatures yet unseen
Finally your number came up, freefall awaits the brave

Come, taste the wine
Raise the blind
They will guide you from the light
Writing noughts till the end of time
Come, surf the clouds
Race the dark
It feeds from the runs undone
Meet me where the cliff greets the sea

The answer to the riddle before your eyes
Is in dead leaves and fleeting skies
Returning swans and sedulous mice
Writing's on the gardens book, in the minute of a lover's look
Building a sandcastle close to the shore
A house of cards from a worn-out deck
A home from the fellowship, poise and calm
Write a lyric for the song only you can understand

Come, taste the wine
Raise the blind
They will guide you from the light
Writing noughts till the end of time
Come, surf the clouds
Race the dark
It feeds from the runs undone
Meet me where the cliff greets the sea

Riding hard every shooting star
Come to life, open mind, have a laugh at the orthodox
Come, drink deep let the dam of mind seep
Travel with great élan, dance a jig at the funeral, come!

Taste the wine
Raise the blind
They will guide you from the light
Writing noughts till the end of time
Ooh, come, surf the clouds
Race the dark
It feeds from the runs undone
Meet me where the cliff greets the sea, come!

Hantu ketuk pintu and the monsoon.

Recently, someone pointed out that there were no hantu ketuk pintu disturbances reported during the rainy flood season. It was as if the hantu ketuk pintu are "afraid" of the rain or trying to avoid being outside during the rainy season. 

Just like most humans.  

Most people also spend most of their time inside their homes during the recent (Dec 2020) heavy monsoon season. In flood prone areas, people are preparing their homes in case their areas are flooded.

And in all this times, the hantu ketuk pintu did not ketuk any pintu. I guess either the hantu are afraid of the rain or the hantu have some compassion towards potential flood victims or maybe the hantu are also preparing their homes (or is it lubuk hantu) for flood.

I fact checked via google. The gangguan ketukan ended about 5th Dec 2020, according to some major newspaper, about the same time the monsoon rain became worse.

I did not know that hantu are afraid of rainwater. Or is it just coincidence? Very interesting coincidence!

Well, I do not know what exactly happen to the hantu ketuk pintu during the monsoon. I was just curious and find it interesting that the ketukan stopped during the wet monsoon (and the 2020 monsoon was one of the wettest and heaviest.)

Just sharing my thought.

CoVid19 and the Emergency.

Well, finally an Emergency has been declared.

An Emergency means democracy is suspended. Parliament is suspended. Also, during an Emergency the Executive branch of the government, the Prime Minister, the ministers & the Cabinet, has more power than during normal time. An Emergency is also called Martial Law since the army is given civilian power like the police. While the PM said this is not a military Emergency, the Army has been given civilian power, that is, the same power as the police. This should concern all of you.

Normally, "enemies" of police and "enemies" of the military are different. Hence, training for the police and for the army are also different. Rules of engagement, that is, rules and guideline on how to engage the "enemies", are different.

If we are in a true security Emergency, like during the Communist insurgency era of the 1960's, I do not mind so much. It makes sense to give the Army the power of the police then. But we are fighting viruses and stubborn & stupid civilian people, not insurgents or enemy combatants. Dealing with stubborn & stupid civilians needs a different tactics and mindsets than dealing with insurgents & enemy combatants. Lives are at stakes here.

Think about it.

.

And then, there is the accusation of the grab of power. I have blogged about this stealing democracy here. The current government is facing a potential collapse due to loss of majority support. A possible snap election is looming. A nation wide election can cause a surge in CoVid19 cases.

Hence, suspension of government was a strategic move. Some people called it "checkmate move". 

Do I agree with this move? I do not know.

Dr Mahathir has said that it was not necessary since there are enough provisions in the current laws to handle the situation. 

The PM said in not so many words, that this is to prevent a possible snap election, which he and his team said is not good for the nation right now. This will enable the current government to focus on fighting CoVid19 without having to worry about politics. The PM said after the pandemic situation is resolved, if constitutionally mandated, then an election will be held. We have to take this assurance with a grain of salt, since, under Emergency rules, technically speaking, he has a lot of power, and he can almost do anything. On the other hand, the PM has built a trust reserve with the rakyat so far, that I am willing to give him the benefit of doubt.

So, was it a political "checkmate move" or a sincere move to protect the nation and rakyat?

Well, I am not naive. I think it is both. It was both a selfish reason to protect his position and to give him time to consolidate his power, and also to protect the nation against another surge. Whether you agree or not, it is what it is. People and politics are not straight forward. They are complicated. 

So, what should you do?

Like I said in my previous post, be vigilant. Social media is a powerful tool now. Use them to highlight irregular rulings or directives or policies that are not related to the CoVid19 issues.

The current PM seems sincere. (The keyword here is "seems"). Personally speaking, he has built a trust reserve with the rakyat, including me, I have to admit. But I am also a sceptic. I never give my trust 100%. 

The structure of our democracy also makes it hard for someone to steal democracy, but then, Germany in the 1930's was also a democracy. Look what happen to Germany & Europe (hell, look what happen to the world) in the 1940's.

Yes, I am exaggerating...but am I?

Hell, let's look closer to home. Ferdinand Marcos declared an Emergency in 1972 and ruled the Philippines until he was deposed in 1986. President Sukarno declared an Emergency in 1957 and ruled Indonesia until he was also deposed in 1967.

So, like I always said, read the past to know what will happen in the future.